得隴望蜀 西方要求人民幣進(jìn)一步升值

      
      就中國(guó)讓元變得更為彈性的努力，它收到了來(lái)自七國(guó)集團(tuán)官員的兩部分信息：既然你已經(jīng)行動(dòng)，現(xiàn)在就要做得更多。
     “有一些進(jìn)步，但是顯然我們希望能看到更多�！庇�國(guó)財(cái)政大臣格頓.布郎( Gordon Brown)在華盛頓的七國(guó)集團(tuán)、國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行的會(huì)議上說(shuō)，美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)約翰.斯諾(John Snow)說(shuō)“更大的彈性是必要的”。
       這是中國(guó)自七月份元升值2.1%以來(lái)七國(guó)集團(tuán)的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)和央行行長(zhǎng)的首次聚會(huì)，他們?cè)?月23號(hào)的聯(lián)合聲明中歡迎這個(gè)新的貨幣制度，然而接下來(lái)的兩天里他們對(duì)于記者所發(fā)的評(píng)論的脾氣大了些，這部分是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)元對(duì)美元的匯率在兩個(gè)月里只升值了0.2%。
      主要的貿(mào)易伙伴要求中國(guó)放松其貨幣限制，部分原因是因?yàn)檫M(jìn)一步升值將有助于削減美國(guó)創(chuàng)記錄的貿(mào)易赤字以及歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。如果沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步進(jìn)展的話，中國(guó)可能有著激怒美國(guó)及其他國(guó)家立法者的危險(xiǎn)，他們可能會(huì)尋求貿(mào)易壁壘及額外關(guān)稅，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)。
      “中國(guó)將面臨更大的壓力是不可避免的�！奔又莶�克利大學(xué)（University of California at Berkeley）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授巴瑞.艾琴格里(Barry Eichengreen)說(shuō)，“如果中國(guó)人沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步的調(diào)整，全球貿(mào)易不平衡將會(huì)惡化�！�
      在華盛頓出席會(huì)議的中國(guó)官員說(shuō)中國(guó)正在以自己的步調(diào)行動(dòng)。周小川，中國(guó)人民銀行的行長(zhǎng)在行長(zhǎng)們的會(huì)議上說(shuō)他的國(guó)家“不會(huì)急于行動(dòng)�！必�(cái)政部長(zhǎng)金人慶對(duì)IMF說(shuō)將會(huì)秉持“獨(dú)立和負(fù)責(zé)任的政策途徑”。
      美元掛鉤
      七國(guó)集團(tuán)是由美國(guó)、日本、德國(guó)、英國(guó)、法國(guó)、意大利和加拿大組成的，經(jīng)濟(jì)總量占世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的2/3，金和周受邀參加部分的會(huì)議，這反應(yīng)了這個(gè)世界上第七大經(jīng)濟(jì)體日益增長(zhǎng)的重要性。
     “在理論上新匯率有著更大的彈性，但是實(shí)際上它并不清晰�！背鱿�七國(guó)會(huì)議部分會(huì)談的歐盟財(cái)經(jīng)委員會(huì)委員尤金.安木尼(Almunia)說(shuō)，意大利財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)居里奧.特蒙締(Giulio Tremonti)說(shuō)他不滿現(xiàn)在“過(guò)于溫和”的升值。
      斯諾說(shuō)他希望中國(guó)能夠清除元的其他限制因素，在IMF的一次演講中，他敦促?lài)?guó)際貨幣基金組織對(duì)于推動(dòng)以市場(chǎng)為基礎(chǔ)的貨幣以及“嚴(yán)厲監(jiān)視”匯率表現(xiàn)出更大的決心。
      與中國(guó)關(guān)系的緊張可能將在未來(lái)幾周里增強(qiáng)，斯諾計(jì)劃在十月份訪問(wèn)這個(gè)國(guó)家，這個(gè)月他的財(cái)政部將會(huì)發(fā)布每半年的報(bào)告，將確定是否有國(guó)家操縱匯率。
      政治壓力
      美國(guó)參議員查里斯.史古默(Charles Schumer)和林得塞.格拉姆(Lindsey Graham)聯(lián)合草擬了一份對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)口貨物征收27.5%關(guān)稅的法案，9月4號(hào)他們說(shuō)將會(huì)再次努力贏得通過(guò)，如果中國(guó)沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步將元升值的話。
     “如果匯率沒(méi)有明顯動(dòng)作的話，最終外部的壓力將會(huì)加大�！比A盛頓國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的的高級(jí)研究員莫里斯.古得斯頓(Morris Goldstein)說(shuō)，“中國(guó)只是做了最少的東西來(lái)傳達(dá)有進(jìn)展的印象，迄今為止，微不足道�！�
      其他政府說(shuō)元的價(jià)值要比它自由交易的低，這人為的幫助它的出口商。它們說(shuō)這種不利情況推動(dòng)了美國(guó)的當(dāng)前帳戶赤字達(dá)到了其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的6%以上，并且傷害了出口占到20%的歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。
      七國(guó)聲明
     `這種懸殊需要采取“果斷的行動(dòng)”來(lái)解決，七國(guó)集團(tuán)的聲明說(shuō)。貿(mào)易失衡、創(chuàng)記錄的油價(jià)以及保護(hù)主義的危險(xiǎn)都有著削弱世界經(jīng)濟(jì)“積極”前景的危險(xiǎn)。
       今年以來(lái)50%的油價(jià)上漲促使七國(guó)集團(tuán)在聲明中說(shuō)成員國(guó)需要在勘探、生產(chǎn)、能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施以及煉油能力上加強(qiáng)投資以降低油價(jià)。七國(guó)集團(tuán)的官員將在十月份再次召開(kāi)會(huì)議。
       日本的財(cái)政大臣相比其他的七國(guó)伙伴們對(duì)中國(guó)表現(xiàn)出了更大的耐性，“我們希望在中國(guó)調(diào)整朝向新的制度之后，能夠讓它的貨幣更加的靈活，”他告訴記者，“在七月份的決定已經(jīng)讓中國(guó)跨出了很大一步，我們需要時(shí)間觀察他們?nèi)绾蔚墓芾砥湄泿�。�?BR>      自從七月份元升值以來(lái)，中國(guó)已經(jīng)采取了一系列的步驟來(lái)發(fā)展其外匯市場(chǎng)，放松銀行持有外國(guó)貨幣的限制，增加個(gè)人出游可以?xún)稉Q外匯的數(shù)額等。
      加尼福利亞一個(gè)投資公司的經(jīng)理說(shuō)為了更大的彈性中國(guó)正在加緊建設(shè)金融基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)，他在一個(gè)采訪中說(shuō)，“我們將看到更多的變化”。
     （引自bloomberg，編譯：Rainpoem）

                     G-7 Ministers Urge China to Make More Progress on Exchange Rate
    Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China received a two-part message from Group of Seven officials about its efforts to make the yuan more flexible: Thanks for what you ve done, and now do more.
    ``There s been some progress, but obviously we want to see some more,   U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown told reporters in Washington during weekend meetings of the G-7, International Monetary Fund and World Bank. U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said ``greater flexibility is still needed.  
     The G-7 finance ministers and central bankers, meeting for the first time since China revalued its yuan by 2.1 percent in July, called new currency regime ``welcome   in their Sept. 23 joint statement. Their comments to reporters over the next two days were more tempered, in part because China s exchange rate has only gained 0.2 percent versus the dollar in two months.
    Major trading partners want China to ease its currency restrictions, in part because further appreciation may help cut a record U.S. trade gap and aid European growth. Without more progress, China risks inflaming lawmakers in the U.S. and elsewhere who seek trade barriers and tariffs, economists said.
      ``More pressure on China is inevitable,   Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley, said in an interview. ``Without further adjustment by the Chinese, the global imbalances will worsen.  
     Chinese officials attending the meetings in Washington said China is moving at its own pace. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People s Bank of China, told a conference of bankers that his country was ``not in a hurry to move forward.   Finance Minister Jin Renqing told the IMF he would pursue an ``independent and responsible policy approach.  
    Dollar Peg
    The G-7 is composed of the U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Italy and Canada and oversees two-thirds of the world economy. Jin and Zhou were invited to parts of the discussions, reflecting the increased importance of the world s seventh largest economy.
    That doesn t mean China is off the hook, ministers said.
``The new exchange rate in theory means more flexibility, but in practice the greater flexibility is not so clear,   said European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, who attended some of the G-7 talks. Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti said he was unsatisfied with the current ``rather modest   revaluation.
    Snow said he is counting on China to remove other restraints on the yuan. In a speech to the IMF, he urged the fund to show ``greater ambition   in promoting market-based currencies and conducting ``firm surveillance over exchange rates.  
    Frustration with China may intensify in coming weeks. Snow plans to visit the country in October, the same month his department is scheduled to issue its semi-annual study of whether any nation is manipulating its exchange rate.
    Political Pressure
    U.S. Senators Charles Schumer and Senator Lindsey Graham, co- sponsors of legislation to impose a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese imports, said Sept. 4 they will renew efforts to win passage unless China does more to bolster the yuan s value.
    ``Eventually outside pressure will pick up if there has been no significant movement in the rate,   said Morris Goldstein, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington. ``The Chinese are only doing the minimum to convey the impression that progress is being made. It s been small potatoes so far.  
    Governments outside China say the yuan s value is lower than it would be if freely traded, artificially helping its exporters. They say the disadvantage helped pushed the U.S. current account deficit above 6 percent of gross domestic product and hurt growth in Europe, where exports are 20 percent of the economy.
    G-7 Statement
    Such disparities need to be confronted with ``vigorous action,   the G-7 statement said. The imbalances, record oil prices and the risk of protectionism all risk undermining an otherwise ``positive   outlook for the world economy, it said.
    A 50 percent increase in oil prices this year prompted the G- 7 say in its statement that members would seek ``significant investment   in exploration, production, energy infrastructure and refinery capacity to help lower energy costs. The G-7 officials will convene again in London in December.
     Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki expressed more patience toward China than his G-7 colleagues. ```We should expect China to make its currency more flexible after it gets adjusted to the new system,   he told reporters. ``China has overcome a big hurdle with its July decision, and we need to watch for a while how they will manage the currency.  
      Since revaluing the yuan in July, China has taken a series of steps to develop its foreign-exchange market, easing limits on how much overseas currency banks can hold, increasing the amount of yuan individuals can sell when traveling and letting banks trade yuan forward contracts.
      Mohamed El-Erian, who manages $27 billion of assets for Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Co., also predicted more flexibility. ``What they are doing over time is putting in place the infrastructure for more flexibility,   he said in an interview. ``We re going to see some more changes.